Update on China's OFDI: Interest in US and Australia May be Related to Stimulus Package
China’s outbound foreign investment strategy continues to make news. TheStreet.com and other business media reported today reported yesterday that China Investment Corp. (CIC), China’s sovereign wealth fund with approximately $300 billion in assets, may be discussing an investment into, or joint venture with, The AES Corporation of Arlington, Virginia. AES operates electrical generating facilities and distribution systems across the globe, has more 25,000 employees and a market capitalization of $9.8 billion. Reuters has reported that last week a senior CIC official said that CIC is seeking minority investments in infrastructure projects as well as green energy projects.
To view these media reports in proper context, it may be well to review a few basic facts about China’s current outbound foreign direct investment (OFDI) program, as reported by Xinhuanet on September 8. Xinhuanet based its story on a report jointly issued by China’s Ministry of Commerce, the National Bureau of Statistics and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange that same day.
- China’s OFDI added up to US$183.97 billion by the end of 2008.
- The source of China’s OFDI is more than 8,500 domestic investors, whose overseas corporate assets in 2008 exceeded US$1 trillion.
- Chinese overseas enterprises employed about 1.03 million people, including 455,000 overseas employees.
- China’s net OFDI in 2008 was US$55.91 billion, an increase of 111% from 2007.
- Chinese investors have established approximately 12,000 enterprises overseas in 174 countries or regions. Approximately 71% of these enterprises were in Asia and Europe.
- Among Chinese outbound investors, 50.2% were limited companies, 16.1% were state-owned enterprises and 9.4% were private companies.
- Investment by state-owned companies declined 3.6% from 2007.
Australia is a key target for China’s OFDI, because of that continent’s abundant raw materials and other material resources. Xinhuanet also reported that Australia is seeking to attract increased amounts of Chinese investment and deepen their bilateral economic cooperation, especially in the energy and natural resource sectors. The senior trade commissioner of the Australian Trade Commission confirmed Australia’s intentions at a international trade forum held in coastal Xiamen, Fujian Province, on September 8.
Data from Australia’s foreign review board show that Chinese investment interest in Australia is on a strong upward trend. Even so, at the end of 2008, China’s total investment stock in Australia was only $6.83 billion, and represented an increase of 26.7% from the position at the end of 2007. With this significant increase, China ranked as Australia’s 13th largest foreign investor.
China’s surge in OFDI may be rooted in its internal $585 billion recession-fighting stimulus package. That package represented 13.2% of China’s gross domestic product for 2008. During Q1 of 2009, Chinese state-owned banks increased their lending by more than one trillion dollars, or more than half of the national GDP on an annualized basis. According to published reports, over half of the new loans went into China’s stock and property markets, generating speculation-driven increases in prices. The remainder went into the Chinese economy and is likely to be doubt a substantial factor driving China’s OFDI. Recognizing that increased China OFDI may be more than desirable for generating and maintaining its economic recovery, Australia’s recently revised foreign investment rules raised the dollar threshold for investments that require regulatory review. The change is expected to result in an increase in the number of Chinese investments in smaller Australian natural resource and energy companies. According to the Australian trade official referenced above, Chinese investment has not harmed Australia’s economic security and has enhanced the reputations of the investors.
The U.S. is on a slower path with China. It is possible that if the AES discussions mature into a deal and if CFIUS and other regulatory review supports the deal, the pace of China’s OFDI into the United States will accelerate. Adverse regulatory responses will likely have a dampening effect when this country can least needs it.
Updated: On September 16, in a follow-up article, Xinhuanet reported that, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce, OFDI by China's 136 centrally-administered state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in 2008 was $35.74 billion. The investment accounted for 64% of China's total OFDI for the year. This appears to be a significantly larger share than had been previously reported.
