FDI Issues to Track in 2010
FDI promises to grow in importance to both developed and the developing economies in the new year. The world economy as a whole has not fully recovered from the slowdown of the past three years. What recovery has occurred has been selective, leading to stronger economies in some cases and leaving weaker economies in others. The imbalance suggests that opportunities for cross-border investments and M&A activities will abound and that those businesses, funds and individuals that have available capital will likely pursue them.
Heightened FDI activity will raise issues in the media, in academia and elsewhere. The issues that will garner the greatest attention are likely to be:
- Protectionism. If there is a sudden, large upturn in FDI into developed economies, will more inbound transactions be challenged by regulatory authorities? At the end of 2009, the Obama administration prevented the acquisition of FirstGold by a Chinese acquirer on national security grounds. Will this be interpreted as protectionism disguised? CFIUS has rarely outright blocked deals in the past, so a moderate increase in number of challenged deals may well be interpreted as a change in political attitude. Complicating the assessment is that foreign buyers will likely be shopping for natural resources business and high technology firms – both of which may have assets that are inordinately valuable and difficult to find elsewhere. These values may raise the stakes to investee nations when control of these assets is shifted offshore.
- Credit Squeeze. Buyers and investors with strong credit lines will likely be very attractive to targets who are starved for debt and equity capital. Distressed assets are in strong supply and can often be revitalized with infusions from capital from new owners with adequate capital supplies. Will buyers and investors remain disciplined and limit their capital at risk, or will there be “shopping sprees” as holdout sellers give up, price spreads narrow and well-endowed players run the table?
- FDI Extends the Service Sector. Economies that have built their capacities and economic fortunes on exports of manufactured goods with price advantages will seek to compete more aggressively by incorporating more of the value chain into their enterprises. They may wish to acquire design capability and marketing interface directly with their ultimate customers. Confronted with the question of “buy or build,” some businesses will look to acquire or invest in businesses that provide those services. This means businesses whose assets go home at night. From an operational perspective, this will raise issues of conflicting corporate cultures. Return on investments into service companies can also be more difficult to measure than investments in hard assets. The range of results on these deals will likely be broader than in other investments.
- Developed Assets More Desirable. For investors in the U.S. and Europe, assets – both hard and soft – that are developed and therefore require minimal additional expenditure, are likely to be more desirable than those requiring considerable additional investment. Consequently, in both developed and developing economies, greenfield investments may have a difficult time competing for investment capital. For outbound investors in China – where capital appears to be less constrained and risk tolerance may be greater – greenfield investments in the energy and agricultural sectors will remain top priorities. There may be a strong divergence that is building, with those economies and businesses in need of significant capital infusions turning away from investors in the developed nations and looking almost exclusively to investors in emerging economies.
- What Direction for Global M&A? The year 2009 brought a large number of strategic cross-border mergers and acquisitions, many with high profiles. The trend toward consolidation within industries will accelerate – the Kraft/Cadbury transaction being the poster child for these deals. Absent from the space at this time are the financial players, such as the private equity funds who have relied on leverage to complete their acquisitions and generate their returns. Will private equity and other private investors step back into the ring before credit has become more available, or will financial deals continue to lag strategic deals? The lack of clarity ahead for many businesses also adds uncertainty regarding valuation and pricing. With these factors taken all together, the return of robust cross-border M&A transactions does not seem imminent.
If we gain information on these FDI issues in the next six months, then the last half of 2010 may appear to be more predictable, especially if it is more in line with past trends. Given the change in direction that 2008 and 2009 brought compared to the immediately preceding years, any predictions – at any point – may deny the reality that volatility persists, even in FDI.
