Nationalist Sentiment vs. FDI: Bharti Airtel Leads to Important Questions re: Candid Policy Toward FDI
The proposed business combination between India’s Bharti Airtel and South Africa’s MTN Group collapsed at the beginning of last month. Local and international politics appear to have played a substantial role in its demise. Therefore, some important questions should be posed. To what extent was the collapse a result of nationalism or protectionism masquerading as a different public policy? Is the withdrawal of that deal evidence of a wider global trend that may make foreign direct investment (FDI) more difficult to execute? As government stimulus programs end, will governments—U.S. and otherwise—use their power to shield companies that have been nursed through the downturn from foreign takeovers?
Bharti is Asia’s leading integrated telecom services provider, with operations in India and Sri Lanka. MTN is South Africa’s leading mobile and fixed-line telecom company, with over 100 million subscribers and operations in over 20 countries in Africa and the Middle East. Their proposed combination was negotiated from the end of May to the end of September and had a value of approximately $24 billion. Bharti would have received a 49% stake in MTN, while MTN and its shareholders would have received a 36% stake in Bharti. The combined enterprise would have been the world’s third largest telecom company.
The ominous notes for FDI come from reports in Dealbook and elsewhere that the South African government failed to approve the transaction because of protectionism and nation-building policies. This outcome was not necessarily predictable because both the Indian and South African governments have supported increased trade among developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. That “South–South” trade is intended to offset growing Chinese economic influence in the region.
Dealbook also reported that interventions by both Indian and South African governments imposed conditions that led to the end of the deal. The South African government required that MTN keep South African management in place and maintain a listing on the Johannesburg stock exchange in addition to its listing on the Mumbai exchange. Indian financial regulators were unwilling to waive their rules against dual listings.
The South African blog SAgoodnews pointed out that there is a long history of dual listed companies and saw no reason why that requirement should have been terminal for the transaction. The blog also dismisses arguments that national political and labor pressures were at fault.
The Indian blog Trak.in News asserts that the Indian government had backed the deal at the highest level, with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expressly giving the combination his support. The blog also suggests that the real issue was whether the national character of the combined business would be Indian of South African. South Africa’s insistence on the dual listing was a cover for this point. On the other side, the Indian authorities believed, but seem not to have stated, that the dual listing would effectively set a conversion rate for the rupee that could differ from the official rate of exchange.
Both companies’ share prices rose after termination was announced. Stock analysts who had trepidations were pleased to see the transaction crater. It therefore is possible that, in addition to political agendas, there were financial issues underlying the headline events. Investors may not have been as supportive of the transaction as were the managements of Bharti and MTN.
After September 30, both governments issued the usual palliatives, saying that they remain open for business and underscoring the importance of FDI. Rather than helping business decide whether to pursue cross-border deals in emerging economies, however, these positions and unarticulated rationales only obscure the facts. The recovery from the worldwide turndown is in its early stages. Obfuscations and half-truths do not bring recovery any nearer, as they only add uncertainty where business strategists would prefer to deal with articulated policies and certainties.
What is true for developing economies such as South Africa and India is also true for the United States. Efforts to generate inbound investment must be very transparent and free from hidden conditions. Actual decisions and measures must align with policy pronouncements. In an environment in which the U.S. is hotly competing with other countries for inbound FDI, the U.S. government cannot afford to be less than utterly committed to inbound investors. Anything less will lead those investors to look for greener pastures—a lesson that South Africa may yet learn.
